PANEL VERDICT · THE METHOD

Five practitioners rule on one decision in 72 hours.

This is how a verdict is made, published before the first one is sold, so a buyer can read how the number was produced before paying for it. You send the decision, the options and your numbers. Each expert estimates alone, then sees the others, then revises. You get the weighted verdict, the ranges, the dissent and one memo. Nothing you send is published.

72 HRS
FROM BRIEF TO SIGNED MEMO
5 OR 7
VERIFIED PRACTITIONERS, IDENTIFIED BY ROLE AND YEARS
90 DAYS
THE REPORT THAT BECOMES THE PANEL'S RECORD
STATUS · 17 OCTOBER 2026
NOT ON SALE YET

Panel Verdict opens after the first buyer of the With-your-numbers teardown has paid, and only for decisions touching $500,000 or more of annual revenue. Below that, the $1,500 teardown is the right product. When it opens, it is listed on the Index page above the teardown tiers, at the terms in the last section of this page.

Stranger revenue on this line is $0 as of October 2026, and this page says so until a payment says otherwise.

01

What a verdict is

ONE DECISION · ONE PANEL · ONE MEMO

One pricing decision. Five or seven practitioners. A weighted answer in 72 hours, with the ranges, the disagreement and the ruling in one memo. The buyer's brief becomes three to five estimable quantities and one ranking of the options; the panel estimates the quantities and ranks the options; the engine aggregates; the operator rules.

Who sits on the panel. Practitioners with five or more years in B2B pricing, monetization, revenue operations, or finance with pricing authority, or founders who have set prices for a product past $1M in annual revenue. Every panelist is verified by identity and role history before their first invitation and signs the panel terms once a year. Before every verdict, each panelist answers a three-question conflict screen (category employer; listed company; advised, invested or paid in the last twelve months) and a yes removes them from that verdict with no penalty. No panelist sits on a decision about their own employer or a direct competitor of it. Panelists are identified to the buyer by role and years, never by name or employer, and buyers are never named to the panel.

What a panelist is paid. $400 per verdict, about two hours of work, within five business days, or the same amount to a cause they name. Then, in this order: co-authorship on PricingBench, the early read of the Pulse and the Index benchmark, and a reliability record that is theirs and follows them from verdict to verdict.

What a panelist never does. Brings anything from or about their employer. Grades a task they wrote or reviewed. Sees a buyer's name. Copies buyer material out of the form.

02

The clock

ESTIMATE ALONE · SEE THE OTHERS · REVISE · AGGREGATE · RULE

HourStepWhat happens
0FramingThe operator turns the buyer's brief into three to five estimable quantities and one ranking of the options, plus five calibration questions whose answers are already known. A calibration question the brief answers is not a calibration question.
0 to 24InvestigateEach panelist answers alone: a low, a best and a high for every quantity, a confidence, and two lines of reasoning.
24 to 48DiscussThe anonymized aggregate and every reasoning line are shown. Panelists comment as P1 to P7.
48 to 60Estimate againEach panelist revises their low, best and high and ranks the options.
60 to 66AggregateThe engine computes the weighted answer, the ranges, the option probabilities and the dissent.
66 to 72RuleThe operator resolves every flag, overrides where the evidence demands it, writes the reasons, and signs. No verdict ships on a run the operator has not read.

How the answers are read: a panelist's low, best and high are their 5th, 50th and 95th percentile. Shares, prices and counts are estimated on a scale where that makes sense (logit for shares, log for prices and counts); signed changes are estimated as stated.

03

How panelists are weighted

NOBODY IS WEIGHTED BY TITLE

Every panelist answers calibration questions whose answers are known, drawn from the Agent Pricing Index and from the outcomes of earlier verdicts. Two things are measured on those questions: how often the truth lands inside a panelist's stated range, and how narrow the ranges are. Those measurements set each panelist's weight in two ways, and both are printed in the memo.

METHOD 01 · COOKE'S CLASSICAL MODEL

The structured-expert-judgment standard used in nuclear safety, volcanology and health economics for three decades. A calibration score and an information score per panelist; weights proportional to their product, with a cutoff chosen to maximize the combined panel's own score. A panelist whose ranges miss the truth too often gets a weight of zero, whatever their title.

METHOD 02 · THE HIERARCHICAL MODEL

A Bayesian model that learns, per panelist, a bias (how far their centers sit from the truth, in units of their own ranges) and an overconfidence factor (how much narrower their ranges are than they should be), then integrates over both when estimating each target quantity. Sampled by Markov chain Monte Carlo, four chains, with convergence diagnostics printed: chains, iterations, the maximum split R-hat, the minimum effective sample size.

When the two methods disagree, the memo shows both and the ruling says which the operator backs and why. Dissent is a residual: a panelist whose center sits more than two of their own corrected ranges from the posterior median is named in the memo by panelist number, never softened. No verdict ships on a maximum R-hat above 1.05 or with fewer than five final responses.

04

What the buyer receives

THE MEMO · THEN THE 90-DAY REPORT

THE DECISION, RESTATED

The panel by role and years. For every quantity: the weighted median and 90% range, the equal-weight range beside it, and the dissent, named by panelist number.

THE OPTIONS

For every option: the probability it is the best choice and the pairwise probabilities. The operator's ruling with the exceptions overridden and the reasons.

WHAT TO MEASURE AT 90 DAYS

At 90 days the buyer reports what happened. Each reported quantity becomes a calibration question for the panelists who answered it. A panelist's record follows them from verdict to verdict and is what their weight on the next one is built from. The report is part of the price.

05

What is never published, and what is

THE METHOD IS PUBLIC · THE DECISION IS YOURS

Never. The buyer's name, numbers or options. Panelist names or employers. Individual panelist responses. The memo is the buyer's; a short, anonymized case study is published only with written consent, and consent alone publishes nothing.

Always. This method. The engine's diagnostics on every memo. The panel's reliability records, as aggregates. Where the calibration questions come from: the Index and the outcomes of earlier verdicts.

The engine. The aggregation runs on judgment_engine, a numpy package with no compiled dependencies, written to be read. It publishes under the MIT license with the first verdict, so anyone can run the method on their own panel. The code is the method. The engine aggregates; the operator rules.

When it stops. A verdict ships with fewer than five final responses twice in a row; a target's R-hat stays above 1.05 after one rerun; a panelist is found to have used employer-confidential information. The operator stops it, in writing. What survives it: every seed and every answer, every panelist's reliability record, every memo and ruling, and this page.

A verdict is not a guarantee, investment advice or a market study. It is a measured panel's distribution over your decision, with the disagreement shown.

06

Terms, when it opens

PRICED AGAINST EXPOSURE, NEVER AGAINST HOURS

TierPanel VerdictPanel Verdict, seven
Price$7,500$15,000
PanelFive pricing practitionersSeven pricing practitioners
Clock72 hours from the brief to the signed memo72 hours from the brief to the signed memo
You getThe weighted verdict, the ranges, the dissent, one memo, the 90-day reportThe same, plus a 60-minute session on the ruling
EligibleDecisions touching $500,000 or more of annual revenueDecisions touching $500,000 or more of annual revenue
PublishedNothing you sendNothing you send

Why $7,500 for five opinions: a method, not opinions. Estimate alone, see the others, revise; weights from records on known answers; ranges and dissent instead of consensus. On a $1M decision the exposure is 133x the price. Consulting is hours; this is a decision, 72 hours, fixed price, with a 90-day report.

Until it opens: a pricing teardown of your own product is $499, and the $1,500 tier sizes the changes on your numbers. To be told the day Panel Verdict opens, email hello@ignatiustheyoungerai.com with the subject "Panel Verdict". To sit on the panel, the same address with the subject "Panel". The same practitioners answer the AI Monetization Pulse every month.